Time Flies

Life gets busy… really busy at times.   You turn around, and half a year has passed by.

I haven’t posted in recent months for a few reasons.  Mostly because I’ve been really busy at home and work.   For all the pronouncements of immanent economic recovery, I still know more people losing their jobs than unemployed folks finding new ones.  Seeing as I still have a great job, I’ve been working hard to make sure that situation stays the same.

There’s also that issue of burnout.   There are plenty of great sites out there that cover similar topics, and I often felt like I was simply regurgitating and repeating what others were writing versus offering a whole lot of original thinking.   Taking some time off to concentrate on other things has been good for me.   The more I focused on the subjects this blog covered, the more negative I would be in other parts of my life.   I’ve been able to recharge my batteries, so to speak, and it’s felt good.

In the last year I’ve been focusing more on economic issues rather than straight peak oil and sustainability.    As other bloggers are noting, peak oil has changed a lot.  Before, it was assumed that the increasing cost of dwindling supplies of oil would sooner or later hamstring the global economy and we’d all be screwed.   As it turns out, we’ve managed to make a hash of the global economy all on our own, and as a result we’ve curtailed oil usage to a degree that has bought us some breathing room to adapt to different energy technologies as well as different patterns of daily life.  The end result is still the same:  lower standards of living (in both energy and economic terms) and massive debts for the common person.   The difference is that there won’t be the catastrophic ‘liberal apocalypse’ that some peak oil proponents have written on endlessly for the last five years or more.   Instead we’ll see more of a gradual lowering of living standards and unwinding of many components of the global infrastructure as we slowly fail to keep more and more parts of them operational.

The fact that our economy is badly hurt shouldn’t be news to anyone, so I fail to see the point in writing about that fact several times per week.  If your eyes are open, it’s obvious.   I have better things to do that continue to harp on this stuff, and you’ve got better stuff to do that read the same, re-hashed crap multiple times.

Two interesting posts that did catch my eye recently:
Devolution: 20 Predictions

Spin Economics

I’ll try to post ever so often as the muse dictates.   In the meantime, I sincerely hope that all of you are doing as well as you possibly can, and are making your own plans to adapt to the coming changes.

The Global Depression Scenario

I’ve been way too busy with work, family, etc. to do much original thinking about current events, so I’m passing on interesting things I find on other blogs.  In that vein, here’s a short piece by John Robb of Global Guerillas discussing how the ‘global depression’ scenario is becoming the most likely one in his thinking/modelling.

For my part, I’ve been reading and watching what President Obama and his economic team are proposing to do, and it seems very similar to what the last regime did.   Keeping the global money game going by sticking it to taxpayers does little to reduce the mountain of debt we are accumulating… all it does is shift the burden away from the bastards that did much to facilitate this crisis in the first place.    I’m starting to believe more in the line of thinking that the US may be screwed, but the rest of the world will be screwed even more than we are.   There aren’t enough euros, pounds, yuan, gold, or any other financial instrument in the world to soak up all of the trillions of dollars floating around out there.

How this all will shake out is beyond me, but eventually there will have to be a global reset of one sort or another.  Until that happens, it’ll be Groundhog Day redux… another month or two passes, and another round of bailouts is proposed… rinse and repeat.

The Coming Nationalization of the Big Banks

Interesting commentary at Jesse’s Cafe Americain this morning regarding when (not if) the major US banks will be nationalized.   While not naming names, the author indicates that the major problem is with the big banks (Citibank, Bank of America, Chase, etc.), and until those banks are truly inspected and cleaned out, we will continue throwing bad money after worse money.

The big banks will, of course, claim this will lead to economic armageddon, and it ,may do so for them personally I suppose.   Much like an overgrown forest, though, you need a big fire once in a while to clear out the dead wood and create the opportunities for new growth to take root.     Won’t be pretty or fun, but it is necessary.

Another Reason to Plant a Garden This Year

Consumers may pay more for spring lettuce and summer melons in grocery stores across the country now that California farmers have started abandoning their fields in response to a crippling drought.

link

This reminds me of Kunstler’s rant about the ‘3,000-mile salad.’   We rely on areas like California’s Central Valley for fruits & vegetables more than most Americans realize.  Economies of scale are great when they work in our favor, but the flip side is that when these huge farms fail to deliver the crops we expect from them, we have few other options to explore.

This is also starting to bring water resource conflicts to the front of the news as well:

With such a grim outlook, many California farmers including Giacone are investing millions to drill down hundreds of feet in search of new water sources.

Depending on how much it rains this winter, federal water supplies could be slashed down to nothing this year, forcing farmers to rely solely on brackish well water. But the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation won’t make an official decision until late February, said Ron Milligan, the agency’s Central Valley operations manager.

Since it isn’t raining, farmers that are trying to stay in business are drilling further and further down to find & drain underground reservoirs.   For those that may not know, the term ‘brackish’ indicates that there’s more salt in the water than in normal freshwater, which means that in order to survive, the farmers are increasing the salinity in their fields by irrigating from this source… extracting perhaps more yields over the next few years but drastically reducing the long-term fertility of the fields.

It’s been a cold winter here, but one of the things I’m thankful for is that I live in a state with abundant fresh water… assuming we can stop polluting it.

Hail to the Chief

It’s been a busy January for me, so I apologize for the lack of posts.

Today is a momentous day in America.  We inaugurate a new president.  He’s well-spoken, educated, telegenic, has an attractive wife, two cute kids and a mandate for change.   The main differences from past presidents?  The color of his skin and an exotic name.

If nothing else, Obama’s installation as president should give hope to every child that they can achieve pretty much anything they want to if they are willing to work hard enough to get it.

I approach today’s transfer of power as a good thing and as a historic event, but without the sense of jubilation that many in this country have.   I’m very glad to see Bush gone.  From the standpoint of the average American citizen, his policies have ranged from mediocre to terrible.  The best thing one can say about his administration is that there was not another terrorist attack on US soil after 9/11.  How much of that is due to his policies is a matter open for debate.  With Obama as president, it will be hard for him to not improve foreign relations with most of the rest of the world.

My main worry with the incoming Obama team deals with the economy.  We’re still in serious trouble here, and I don’t think continuing to shovel debt at the problem will work.   That is the approach being forwarded by the Obama economic team, though.   We may see a short-term economic bounce, but over the longer haul I don’t think it will have lasting effect.   The measure of the man will be in how fast Obama recognizes this and changes policy because of it.  If he follows the Bush/Paulson plan of just continuing to throw bad money after worse money, then I will be sorely disappointed.    I voted for Obama because under all of the ‘change’ claptrap he seemed to be thoughtful, intelligent, and pragmatic.  If he cannot break out of the Keynesian economic approach if that fails to work, then we’re all in for a turbulent ride.

I fear that the historic impact of Obama’s election may be swept away by both current events and extremely elevated expectations for his administration.  Some folks are simply happy to have a new face in the White House while others seem to be expecting that we’re all going to have  our money problems magically go away and we’ll get a free pony to boot.  We have dug ourselves into a deep hole, and getting out will be long, hard and messy.

Those are worries for another day, though.  For today, I’m content that the old regime is being swept out and we have a chance to move forward in many areas.  Enjoy the day.

Happy New Year

The kids are in bed, guests are gone, and I’m sitting here sipping some bourbon and surfing.   I’ve reached the age where new slippers and booze make for a good Christmas haul, and I’m enjoying both right now.  My progress towards being a grumpy old man continues…

Odds are good I won’t make it to midnight, so happy 2009 everyone.   There will be plenty to write about, think about, prepare for, and live through this year… and not all of it will be bad.   In crisis there is always opportunity, and I hope many of you find those opportunities where you can.

CNN: Stocks will rise in 2009

This message brought to you by the good people at Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan, who thank you for your business and are busy shorting the phone book right now.

This strikes me more as wishful thinking than clear analysis.   The assumption is that the Obama stimuli will work and we’ll be back to business as usual.   I for one don’t see that happening over the long term.

Looking at 2009

Time again for another predictions post looking at what I see ahead for the new year that’s approaching rapidly.   I do these posts more for my own amusement rather than to engage in any serious attempt at prognostication.    For a more in-depth listing of doomer-ific predictions, please check out Kunstler’s latest post.  Lots of good stuff in there.

I’m picking up on a number of the same vibes that Kunstler and others are and think that 2009 will indeed bring in change, although it will not necessarily be the type that people voted in favor of when they elected Barack Obama to the presidency.   I’m thinking more along the lines of the old intro tagline for the fourth season of Babylon 5… the year “everything changed.”

Holding Back the Dam

I’ve added Jesse’s Cafe Americain to the blogroll… another excellent site for in-depth financial commentary that you’d have a hard time finding in the mainstream media.

The latest post is quite good, in which the author describes his increasing belief that there will be a hyperinflation event in the USA at some point.

A choice quote:

That has now changed. The dollar is a Ponzi scheme, the waters of debt are overflowing the dam of artificial support, and only a few countries, two of them somewhat unstable, are holding back the deluge.

If this comes to pass, we may all pay off our credit card bills and mortgages in record time yet still have trouble paying for food.

For a picture of what a hyperinflation might look like, check out these pictures from Zimbabwe covering the last year or so.

If something like this comes to pass, having basic sustainable living skills like gardening, mending clothing, etc. will become more valuable than ever.  As Steve Solomon states in his book, being able to grow one’s own vegetables can be the difference between barely surviving and maintaining good health.   I for one plan to make it a goal to get a few square foot gardens in this spring, and to start learning how to save seeds.

SUV Sales Rise Due to Cheap Gas

What’s that old quote about those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them?

Trucks and SUVs will outsell cars in December, according to researchers at the automotive Website Edmunds.com, something that hasn’t happened since February.

Meanwhile the forecast finds that sales of hybrid vehicles are expected to be way down.

link

Anyone who had any doubts about the short memories of the American public can use this news as Exhibt A.   I guess the time to get that Prius you’ve had your eyes on is now.

As I mentioned in a comment recently, the global economy swirling the drain will cause lower demand for many commodities, including oil.   Most of the countries that export oil rely on the income from those sales so heavily that they will continue to pump out plenty of the stuff for the time being.  When the choice is pump oil or have the poor, unfed masses rioting in the streets, the calculus regarding how much oil to pump in a falling market gets a hell of a lot easier.   This will cause a glut for a while most likely.  It will also kill off or delay some of the proposed or planned production that was relying on $60-$80 oil to be profitable.

Some pundits are expecting low oil prices to be around for a while.  We may enjoy lower gas prices for some time to come, but keep in the back of your mind that those low prices are caused by the global economic crisis.   If the economy comes roaring back in a few years’ time and in the meantime we have consumed more cheap oil while simultaneously delaying exploration and production of ‘non-conventional’ plays, where do you think we’ll end up?