Mexico’s Cantarell oil field is the second-largest producing oil field in the world, behing Saudi Arabia’s mammmoth Ghawar. Production levels at Cantarell have been dropping for a while, and last December, PEMEX (Mexico’s oil corporation) indicated that they anticipated Cantarell’s oil production would decline by around six percent this year. Well, they underestimated a bit.
PEMEX now estimates production will decline by eight percent for 2006, with declines getting progressively greater as the years pass. This critical oil field is currently producing 1.86 million barrels of oil per day (ater producing 2.03 million per day in 2005), and by 2008 it’s expected to drop to 1.43. For those having rudimentary math skills (that’s me), that’s around a 30% decline in production over three years. Tell me again how the peak oil theory is bunk?
I love this quote:
“The slides that they’re starting to see out of Cantarell must have a lot of people stressed at Pemex,” said John Padilla, director of IPD Latin America, an energy consulting firm with offices in Mexico City, Caracas and New York.”
No shit, Sherlock. They’ll start stressing people elsewhere soon too.